What is the Difference between the Financial and Palm Reading Industries?


Nothing other than the fees. In a meta study of financial research Campbell R. Harvey and colleagues, find that "most claimed research findings in financial economics are likely false." Not, that much research is false, or a majority of research is false, but most is false.

Why is this? Basic statistics. All the studies examined fail to correct for the multiple comparisons problem in their statistical testing and confound this by using very loose criteria for statistical significance.

This problem is further exacerbated by the inability to test hypotheses with rigorous experimental studies. Correlative studies plus faulty statistics equals nonsense.

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